2025 El Nino Or La Nina Forecast. To substantiate the el nino analog, ecmwf has shifted their nino34 ssta forecast for the second half of 2025 into the el nino category. This likelihood increases to 60% from october 2024 to february 2025, with the chance of el niño redeveloping during this time being negligible.

Consequently, el nino risk is on the table. La niña is expected to emerge, with chances for la niña gradually increasing from 66% to 74% during the november 2024 to january 2025 timeframe.